Gambling is very much a numbers game in and of itself, but aside from card values, numbered slot machine symbols, and jackpot amounts, have you ever wondered what all the other different metrics mean in casino games? Some players have no idea how the odds or house edge of a game can impact their chances of winning, nor do they have a proper understanding of RTP (Return to Player), hit frequency of a slot, its volatility, or how odds can get progressively better or worse based on the strategies applied.
If you’re one of these players, and you’re looking for a little extra clarity on these stats and what they mean, we’ve broken it down into a nice, easy, digestible blog to clear up any confusion with the 5 most misunderstood casino stats. Let’s dive in!
1. RTP (Return to Player)
What gamblers believe:
“I’ll get 96% of my money back every time I play.”
How it actually works:
How nice would it be if this were true? But the sad reality is that if you were to win back 96% of your stake every time, you’d either be rich very quickly or the slot wouldn’t even be worth playing because the returns would be so minuscule. What you need to understand about RTP is that it simply indicates how much of the total bet amount placed is returned to players over time. That means, on a 96% RTP machine, you’d be likely to get $96 worth of returns for every $100 wagered. But this would be thousands, maybe even millions of spins later down the line—not an immediate return that occurs after every spin.
When playing real money slots online or offline, you could lose everything in ten minutes or less, or you could get lucky and hit the jackpot. It has nothing to do with the RTP, though; this metric is simply an average.
Applying it in real life:
RTP should be used as a guide and help you compare games to establish which ones are worth your while. Any slots with an RTP over 95% are generally considered good and mean you’re more likely to see a payout on these machines than a game with an RTP of say, 85%. Normally, the payout amount will be bigger on these games, but the frequency will be much rarer in comparison to the 96% RTP game.
2. House Edge
What gamblers believe:
“This indicates the likelihood of me losing after a spin.”
How it actually works:
The house edge, or casino game odds as others like to call it, is essentially the opposite of the metric above and refers to the advantage the house has over the player. So if the house edge is 4%, that means the casino is likely to make $4 on every $100 bet placed, over time.
Again, “over time” is the key phrase here—the house edge doesn’t guarantee the house will always win or that it will rake in $4 every time, it’s simply an indicator. You could easily beat the house in a single spin, or you could lose all your cash in one go. It really does come down to chance.
To add to this, some players have been known to confuse the house edge with the likelihood of losing, aka, losing 4% of your bet after each wager placed, which is also completely false. All it means is that the casino will take an average cut of around 4% of wagers—from all players on that particular game—over time.
Applying it in real life:
This one’s pretty straightforward. The lower the house edge is on a slot game, the better your odds are of winning. A game with a 1% house edge is going to mean you have a much better chance at seeing returns compared to a game with a house edge of 5%. That’s why many players favor online blackjack, because with a solid strategy, the house edge can come down to as low as 0.43%.
3. Volatility (Variance)
What gamblers believe:
“Woohoo! High volatility means I’ll get bigger and better payouts.”
How it actually works:
Kind of true, but casino game volatility is more about how a game pays out as opposed to the amount it pays out overall. Similar to how RTP works, a slot game with high volatility is likely to pay out large amounts but over longer periods of time, whereas a low-volatility slot may pay out smaller wins a lot more frequently.
A good way to think of it is as follows:
High volatility = bigger wins (potentially) but over longer periods. Also, more risky…
Low volatility = smaller, more frequent wins and less risky—but also less excitement.
Don’t mistake high volatility for a higher RTP or more favorable player odds. While this might be the case from time to time, most often it’s not. A game with a high RTP could also have high volatility, which would mean payouts are typically delivered in dribs and drabs.
Applying it in real life:
Match volatility to your playstyle and bankroll. High volatility is great if you enjoy chasing big wins and don’t mind longer losing streaks. Low volatility is ideal if you prefer consistent, smaller wins and longer play sessions.
4. Hit Frequency
What gamblers believe:
“Higher hit frequency = more wins = more profit.”
How it actually works:
Hit frequency refers to how often a winning combination lands—not how big the wins are. A game with a 30% hit frequency means that on average, 30 out of 100 spins will result in some kind of win.
But here’s the catch: many of those “wins” might be smaller than your original bet. A slot could hit frequently, but still drain your bankroll with low-paying or break-even results.
Applying it in real life:
High hit frequency is great if you enjoy a more engaging session with regular wins—just don’t mistake activity for profitability. Pair hit frequency info with volatility to understand both how often and how much you’re likely to win.
5. Progressive Jackpot Odds
What gamblers believe:
“I’m bound to eventually hit the jackpot if I play for long enough.”
How it actually works:
Games with progressive jackpots are often home to life-altering sums of money, but your chances of actually scoring one of these mammoth prizes are 1 in several million—you’re probably more likely to win the lottery! In most Progressive Jackpot games, you also need to meet a certain set of requirements to trigger the prize. This normally includes betting the maximum number of coins the game allows or triggering a bonus feature that’s separate from the base game.
It’s easy to assume that you’re in for a fair shot with every spin on these types of games, or that the longer you play the game, the closer you’ll get to reaching the jackpot. However, like all casino games, spins, dice rolls, and card dealings are always random; no matter how long you play, the outcome will always be independent.
Applying it in real life:
You can’t beat the chills and thrills of playing progressive slot games, especially when there’s such a massive prize up for the taking. But playing them for this purpose, aka a bit of fun, as opposed to seeing them as games that will ”eventually promise a big win,” is a much more realistic and sensible approach than the latter, and one that will lead to far less disappointment.
Does Knowing This Stuff Actually Help?
You might not think about them when you’re immersed in the action of your favorite game, but these statistics can actually prove to be quite valuable tools if you properly understand them.
The RTP is an extremely helpful metric to know because it gives you an idea of your expected returns in a game over time. As for the house edge, this indicates the advantage the casino has in a game, while the volatility/variance tells you whether you’re likely to hit big wins or small wins over time. Hit frequency represents how often you’re likely to hit a payout, and progressive jackpots’ odds are, well, sad indicators of huge amounts of cash you’re extremely unlikely to win—but never say never!
Understanding these stats and measurements may not guarantee that you’ll win a game, but they may well help you play smarter simply by being aware of them and by basing your choices off things like RTP and house edge. And if you’re still not seeing success, ultimately, the best move you can make is to simply quit while you’re ahead and cut your losses.
